Shortly before the 2006 midterm elections, I heard a prominent political scientist argue, in public, that the Dems had no shot at taking back Congress. He was led to this view by his reading of the relevant statistical and historical patterns. In the manner of many political scientists these days, he sought in these patterns the real logic of electoral politics, the driving force beneath all the superficialities of public debate and deliberation (such as they both are). The political scientist was wrong, of course, though you